亚急性期脑卒中患者康复动机的影响因素及模型构建
摘要
年 2 月在唐山市 3 家三级甲等医院脑卒中患者 594 例，按照 7 ∶ 3 的比例随机分为训练集（n=415）和测试集（n=179）。
利用卡方检验、Lasso 回归及 Logistic 回归筛选影响因素，采用随机森林建立模型，通过受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线下面
积（AUC）评价模型的预测性能。结果 : 共计 6 个预测因子 , 分别为年龄、高血压、疾病不确定、运动锻炼习惯、上肢肌力、
焦虑。疾病不确定感对康复动机的影响最大 , 其次是焦虑和运动锻炼习惯。训练集 ROC 曲线下面积 AUC 为 0.994，灵敏
度和特异度分别为 0.946 和 0.983。测试集 ROC 曲线下面积 AUC 为 0.953，其灵敏度和特异度分别为 0.845, 0.947。结论 :
构建的亚急性期脑卒中患者低康复动机的风险预测模型预测效能较高。
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